AGI Index dimension · weight 13%
Reasoning
Multi-step inference that holds together over long chains.
The capacity to decompose a problem, carry intermediate conclusions forward without drift, and recognise when a chain of inference has gone wrong. Scored on depth of chain, robustness to distractors, and whether performance survives when a problem is rephrased outside its training distribution.
The argument
Evidence and counter-evidence
Both sides are published at equal weight. A framework that only records what raises a score is not measuring anything.
Raises the score
- Deliberate-inference systems now sustain far longer chains before compounding error becomes fatal, and can allocate more computation to harder instances rather than answering at fixed cost.
- Competition-grade mathematics and formal proof assistance have moved from novelty to routine, including problems whose statements post-date the training corpus.
- Self-verification — a model checking its own intermediate steps and revising them — improves accuracy measurably rather than merely restating the original answer.
Holds it down
- Accuracy still degrades sharply when a familiar problem is restated with unfamiliar surface structure, suggesting pattern retrieval doing work we attribute to inference.
- Chains that look valid frequently reach correct answers through invalid intermediate steps, so scoring the output overstates the reasoning.
- Reliability, not peak capability, remains the binding constraint: the same system solves a problem and fails its near-neighbour.
What the score reads from
Competition mathematics
Held-out logical inference
Long-horizon consistency
Reasoning over time
| Date | Index |
|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | 15.0 |
| Jul 2020 | 19.0 |
| Jan 2021 | 23.0 |
| Jul 2021 | 26.0 |
| Jan 2022 | 30.0 |
| Jul 2022 | 33.0 |
| Jan 2023 | 42.0 |
| Jul 2023 | 47.0 |
| Jan 2024 | 53.0 |
| Jul 2024 | 58.0 |
| Jan 2025 | 63.0 |
| Jul 2025 | 67.0 |
| Jan 2026 | 69.0 |
| Apr 2026 | 70.0 |
| Jul 2026 | 72.0 |
| Sep 2026 | 74.0 |
Related coverage
Everything bearing on reasoning
News
Context
Where this sits against the rest
- Multimodality82
- Coding81
- Tool use76
- Memory67
- Generalization66
- Planning61
- Learning59
- Autonomy53
- Social intelligence52
- Scientific discovery48
- Embodiment41