Skip to content

PreviewAll content, scores and forecasts here are illustrative sample data — not reporting, and not measurements.What this means

Agitology

AGI Index dimension · weight 13%

Reasoning

Multi-step inference that holds together over long chains.

The capacity to decompose a problem, carry intermediate conclusions forward without drift, and recognise when a chain of inference has gone wrong. Scored on depth of chain, robustness to distractors, and whether performance survives when a problem is rephrased outside its training distribution.

The argument

Evidence and counter-evidence

Both sides are published at equal weight. A framework that only records what raises a score is not measuring anything.

Raises the score

  • Deliberate-inference systems now sustain far longer chains before compounding error becomes fatal, and can allocate more computation to harder instances rather than answering at fixed cost.
  • Competition-grade mathematics and formal proof assistance have moved from novelty to routine, including problems whose statements post-date the training corpus.
  • Self-verification — a model checking its own intermediate steps and revising them — improves accuracy measurably rather than merely restating the original answer.

Holds it down

  • Accuracy still degrades sharply when a familiar problem is restated with unfamiliar surface structure, suggesting pattern retrieval doing work we attribute to inference.
  • Chains that look valid frequently reach correct answers through invalid intermediate steps, so scoring the output overstates the reasoning.
  • Reliability, not peak capability, remains the binding constraint: the same system solves a problem and fails its near-neighbour.

What the score reads from

  • Competition mathematics

    Near-saturated at the high-school level; graduate-level proof remains open.

  • Held-out logical inference

    Strong on canonical forms, materially weaker on adversarial restatements.

  • Long-horizon consistency

    Error compounds past roughly a hundred dependent steps.

Reasoning over time

0306010074.0Jan 2020Jan 2024Sep 2026
Reasoning score, 2020 to 2026
DateIndex
Jan 202015.0
Jul 202019.0
Jan 202123.0
Jul 202126.0
Jan 202230.0
Jul 202233.0
Jan 202342.0
Jul 202347.0
Jan 202453.0
Jul 202458.0
Jan 202563.0
Jul 202567.0
Jan 202669.0
Apr 202670.0
Jul 202672.0
Sep 202674.0