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PreviewAll content, scores and forecasts here are illustrative sample data — not reporting, and not measurements.What this means

Agitology
Independent researchers6 min readSample

Contamination audit revises several widely cited generalization results

An independent audit finds that a meaningful share of reported cross-domain transfer disappears once evaluation items are reconstructed to exclude training overlap.

highAGI relevance: highreasoningsafety

Agitology analysis

Why it matters

Generalization carries the second-highest weight in the Index and the lowest confidence. Work that narrows the uncertainty matters more than work that raises the score — and this narrows it downward.

Key developments

  • Reconstructed held-out items reduce reported transfer by a material margin
  • The effect is largest on the benchmarks most often cited in capability claims
  • Authors argue public benchmarks are structurally unable to measure transfer

Index impact

How this development moved — or failed to move — the dimensions it bears on.

  • −0.8GeneralizationLowers the score; raises confidence in what remains.

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