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Agitology

Every Tuesday

The AGI Brief

The week in artificial general intelligence, compressed to what changes your beliefs. No roundup padding, no capability announcements without evidence, and every claim traceable to a source.

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  • 5developments worth knowing
  • 3papers, with limitations
  • 1forecast, scored against its preconditions
  • ±what moved the Index, and why

Specimen issue · 1 Sep 2026

Index 63.4 +2.7

Trajectory slowing. Movement concentrated in reasoning and autonomy; embodiment flat for a second quarter.

Five developments

  1. Deliberation budgets scale past the point of diminishing returns
  2. Contamination audit revises several widely cited generalization results
  3. Unsupervised operating windows reach a full working day on constrained tasks
  4. Manipulation policies transfer across robot morphologies without retraining
  5. Closed-loop materials laboratory completes a month without human intervention

Three papers

  • Inference-Time Compute Scaling Beyond Expected SaturationNeurIPS
  • Reconstructed Held-Out Evaluation of Cross-Domain TransferICLR
  • Cross-Embodiment Transfer in General Manipulation PoliciesCoRL

Specimen content drawn from this preview build’s sample data.

What it is not

  • A roundup. Items that do not change what we believe are left out, even when they were widely covered.
  • A promotional channel. Sponsors never appear in the editorial body, and never influence what is covered.
  • A prediction service. Forecasts are scenario weights with stated preconditions, and past ones are scored in public.
  • Frequent. One email a week. We would rather skip an issue than pad one.