PreprintSample
Task Exposure and the Contraction of Entry-Level Employment
M. Ferreira, J. Osei — Independent
Abstract
We construct a task-exposure measure from occupational task descriptions and match it against posting data by seniority. Junior postings contract faster than senior postings in high-exposure occupations, with the effect strongest where output is text or code. We discuss the pipeline consequences: the tasks that train junior practitioners are the most exposed.
Key findings
- Junior postings contract faster than senior in high-exposure occupations
- Effect strongest where occupational output is text or code
- No corresponding effect in low-exposure occupations over the same period
- Pipeline effects compound over a decade, not a quarter
Limitations
Published at equal prominence to the findings. A paper’s limitations are usually the part that determines how much its result should move your beliefs.
- Posting data is a noisy proxy for hiring
- Causal attribution is not established
- Macroeconomic conditions are a plausible confound