Forecasting researchers8 min readSample
Forecasting track records published for AGI timeline predictions
A retrospective scores public AGI timeline predictions made between 2015 and 2022 against what actually occurred.
mediumAGI relevance: mediumforecasts
Agitology analysis
Why it matters
Timeline claims are made constantly and scored almost never. A public track record is the only mechanism by which forecasting in this field becomes something other than assertion.
Key developments
- Capability predictions systematically early; deployment predictions systematically late
- Confidence intervals too narrow across nearly all forecasters
- No correlation found between forecaster prominence and accuracy